investor sentiment metrics

interesting quick overview of ways to measure investor sentiment as a market indicator. following is a snippet with 6 examples.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9200dbf4-7b6f-11e2-8eed-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2MBYXC97A

Panic or euphoria: six ways to measure the market
● AAII bull-bear ratio

Nothing illustrates the flakiness of some sentiment measures more than the weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors. Widely used as a guide to the proportion of bulls and bears in the market, it involves sometimes fewer than 100 self-selected investors reporting their mood. Yet its long history and broad accuracy – super-bullish at market peaks, uber-bearish when the market bottoms out – has made it a favourite.
● Investors Intelligence

There are some very shrewd writers of investment newsletters (Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is an example). Taken as a whole, newsletters capture the feeling in the market. Investors Intelligence categorises each newsletter as bullish or bearish; the spread between the two shows when writers are becoming emotionally attached to the market.
● Futures market positioning

Many investors try to copy what the “smart money” is up to. They would do better to watch it as a contrary indicator, preparing to do the opposite. Positions in S&P 500 derivatives (not the e-mini) offer a handy guide to how sophisticated traders feel about the market. The net positioning shown in the chart can be used to test whether they are too optimistic or pessimistic.

● Equity put/call ratio

The options market offers investors the chance to buy insurance for their portfolios or speculate on future gains. The ratio between put options (which make money if the market falls) and calls (which profit from rising markets) is an immediately-available guide to how relatively sophisticated investors feel. When it becomes very high, investors are extremely cautious, when very low, they feel no need for insurance.
● Combined measures

Lots of consultancies and investment banks produce combined measures, all constructed somewhat differently. Shown here is one, from Absolute Strategy Research, which combines the different investor surveys into a single poll of polls. At the moment it suggests investors feel dangerously sanguine.
● Investment bank equity weighting

The model contrarian would only invest in things that made them feel physically sick and only sell when convinced they should buy more. Merrill Lynch strategists measure recommendations from the rest of Wall Street’s strategists, and suggest doing the opposite. At the moment the Street’s strategists have a low weighting in equities. Merrill sees this as a bullish signal for shares.

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